https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawnJ81dsV_lg5JjIYipIjXXhrRpPQb4flDg ([identity profile] https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawnJ81dsV_lg5JjIYipIjXXhrRpPQb4flDg) wrote in [personal profile] henry_the_cow 2014-09-10 11:44 pm (UTC)

Some TL;DR for you.. [4/5]

  • UK government has already committed to servicing the whole UK debt. That's as should be: international law holds that the country being seceded from is the one that is deemed to have signed past contracts, etc. I'm guessing that's why iScotland is also held to be leaving the EU and NATO.

  • That debt is borderline unserviceable for rUK: it's huge to the point that markets don't believe rUK can cope, and Salmond has said he'll effectively offer the rUK foreign aid to help cover it in exchange for a currency union. Note that the "Scotland's Future" document also argues that iScotland may consider other currency options down the road, but currency union is certainly the favoured first option. It's low impact. It papers things over while iScotland works through the other stuff. So Scotland doesn't need a solution that is guaranteed to work forever, Mr Krugman.

  • It's been widely argued that removing devo max from the ballot (seriously, why did BT do that? And in whose interest was it?) and refusing currency union are BT engaging in brinkmanship. However since the pound crashed after the yes-in-the-lead poll, it's nice to find several people (including Nobels like Stiglitz and Pissarides) arguing that Osborne is deliberately creating the chaos he claims to be trying to avoid. This does make it more credible that he'll eat his words after the vote.

  • Adam Smith Institute and a few others have endorsed the idea of Sterlingisation (pound without a currency union). Among other things it turns out that if there's no public body to bail out private banks then moral hazard is reduced and weirdly the banks start to behave more responsibly. Who knew.

  • EU: the EU offered to examine the process of Scottish accession if the UK government asked them to. Cameron refused to ask. Why? Who did that serve?

  • Juncker has pedalled a much softer line than Barroso, promising Scotland an exception to the five-year growth moratorium he's proposing, and that Scotland will be treated as a "special and separate case". Can you seriously imagine the chaos that would be caused if Scotland actually left the EU, and Scottish people became illegal aliens in Europe and vice versa? Do you really think that an arrangement would not be found very swiftly indeed? The details will take time, but the idea of Scotland's becoming an illegal black hole with Europe all around it somewhat beggars belief.

  • I kindof think a similar argument applies to NATO. They specifically forbid new members from hosting nuclear arms by the way, so iScotland would have to get rid of Trident in order to join. Made me laugh when I read that.


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